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| Guivarch, Celine; Hallegatte, Stephane. |
| Political attention has increasingly focused on limiting warming to 2°C. However, to date the only mitigation commitments accompanying this target are the so-called Copenhagen pledges, and these pledges appear to be inconsistent with the 2°C objective. Diverging opinions on whether this inconsistency can or should be resolved have been expressed. This paper clarifies the alternative assumptions underlying these diverging view points and explicits their implications. It first gives simple visualizations of the challenge posed by the 2°C target. It then proposes a “decision tree”, linking different beliefs on climate change, the achievability of different policies, and current international policy dynamics to various options to move forward on climate change. |
| Tipo: Working Paper |
Palavras-chave: Feasibility of 2°C Target; Climate Change Negotiations; Environmental Economics and Policy; Q5; Q58. |
| Ano: 2011 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/120019 |
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| Henriet, Fanny; Hallegatte, Stephane. |
| This article proposes a framework to investigate the consequences of natural disasters. This framework is based on the disaggregation of Input-Output tables at the business level, through the representation of the regional economy as a network of production units. This framework accounts for (i) limits in business production capacity; (ii) forward propagations through input shortages; and (iii) backward propagations through decreases in demand. Adaptive behaviors are included, with the possibility for businesses to replace failed suppliers, entailing changes in the network structure. This framework suggests that disaster costs depend on the heterogeneity of losses and on the structure of the affected economic network. The model reproduces economic... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Natural disasters; Economic impacts; Economic Network; Production Economics; D20; Q54; R15. |
| Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/46657 |
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| Gusdorf, Francois; Hallegatte, Stephane. |
| This paper shows that cities made more compact by transportation taxation are more robust than spread-out cities to shocks in transportation costs. Such a shock, indeed, entails negative transition effects that are caused by housing infrastructure inertia and are magnified in low-density cities. Distortions due to a transportation tax, however, have in absence of shock detrimental consequences that need to be accounted for. The range of beneficial tax levels can, therefore, be identified as a function of the possible magnitude of future shocks in transportation costs. These taxation levels, which can reach significant values, reduce city vulnerability and prevent lock-ins in under-optimal situations. |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Community/Rural/Urban Development. |
| Ano: 2007 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10273 |
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| Hallegatte, Stephane; Ghil, Michael. |
| In this paper, we investigate the macroeconomic response to exogenous shocks, namely natural disasters and stochastic productivity shocks. To do so, we make use of an endogenous business cycle model in which cyclical behavior arises from the investmentprofit instability; the amplitude of this instability is constrained by the increase in labor costs and the inertia of production capacity and thus results in a finite-amplitude business cycle. This model is found to exhibit a larger response to natural disasters during expansions than during recessions, because the exogenous shock amplifies pre-existing disequilibria when occurring during expansions, while the existence of unused resources during recessions allows for damping the shock. Our model also shows... |
| Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Community/Rural/Urban Development. |
| Ano: 2007 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10275 |
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